Frustration, aggravation, devastation
Thursday January 18th 2007, 1:07 am
Filed under: MTT,No-Limit Hold'em,PokerStars,Tournaments

Can I get a hell yeah? Yeah. Can I get a hell no? No. Can I get a “fuck this bs”? Hell yeah!

Just one of these days, yet again, where I’m sitting here, typing this in silence and utter frustration. It’s starting to bother me so much, I can’t even begin to tell you. It’s like the odds are stacked against me, everytime, everytime the odds should be stacked in my advantage that is. I’ve written it over and over and it’s just as much part of poker, as sucking out yourself. It hurts though, especially if it comes down to one crucial hand, you got your opponent right where you want him, he’s nearly dead, making an incorrect play (bad call) and still you can’t win it. Now if that’s in a meaningless pot early on – hell, it bothers me, but I can brush it off, say “nice catch” and play continues. But in such crucial hands, it’s almost impossible to stay sane and surprisingly enough I kept my head up despite being on MAJOR steam.

The setup: Double shootout to the sunday million, we’re seven handed after I busted a player JJ vs J8 on an 8-high board. Blinds are at 15/30. I start the hand with 2925 in chips.
I get dealt [Ks Kh] in the SB. MP pops it to 90, standard preflop raise, cutoff calls, button folds. I ponder a re-raise, but hell…I’ll let the flop come down, the BB might reraise anyway as he’s an aggressive player. He just smooth-calls and we see a flop four-handed. – Side note: I layed down kings earlier today on such a setup as the Ace hit the turn. So not overcommiting might not be the worst thing.

Flop: [3c Tc 2h]

I lead out with 480 (pot 360). BB smooth calls again instantly. Now I think he’s either hit his set or he’s drawing to the flush. Pot is now at 1320.
Turn: [2d]

I ponder and decide that I’m going to go with my gut feeling and I push.

Ingoal: bets 2355 and is all-in

He ponders for around 20 seconds
fatjim: calls 1430 and is all-in

River…[4c]

Showdown:

Ingoal: shows [Ks Kh] (two pair, Kings and Deuces)
fatjim: shows [6c Jc] (a flush, Jack high)

Now I’m sitting there in disbelieve. How can you call off your whole stack when you a) had only 33% in the pot which not even remotely counts as pot-commited and if you’re looking at a paired board after the turn. For all I know he could have been dead by then…the way it was he was dead to 7 clubs (2c gives me the boat, Kc gives me the boat)…
Now remember, this is a shootout, so it’s all about winning the table, but is that a bad play on my part? What more can I do? Throw away my hand after the turn because the flush is going to come anyway? Are you nuts? What in the world is going on here..I’m starting to feel like I was Daniel Negreanu on the second season of HSP…every single time they suck out on my, not in the small pot…in the BIG ONE.

So…after that I’m sitting with 925 chips instead of with 5k chips…too bad…cry me a river, damn it. I didn’t tilt it off though and instead I played a mean short-stack. Doubled through another player when my JJ held up against the AJ, woohoo me. So I’m back with 2k, but still not sitting pretty. We lose two players and I’m kind of desperate with just over 1400. I look down at A10 in the cutoff. Three big stacks behind me, so I decide to push…sure enough, Mr. Suckout insta-pushes over the top…uh-oh…well..he shows JJ and damn sure, there’s no way in hell I’m going to resuck on him…and I’m out in 5th at the table…

“Crucial hand stats”:

Preflop: 83/17

Flop: 63/37

Turn: 84/16 – it’s were the money went in

Result: 0/100 – surprise surprise

After this bs, yet again, I’m seriously considering retirement from the (online) tourney scene, as I just can’t take it anymore, at least not atm. What good is it if I’m xx-xxx% better than the donks and I’m 7x-9x% favourite everytime a big pot evolves, when I get kicked in the balls precisely in that particular moment ALL THE TIME? Can someone answer me that? That’s not normal. It’s no temporary phenomenon. It’s the way it is, period. Or maybe it’s just me seeing the shadow on the wall, I don’t know, but seriously, I can’t remember the last time I won such a crucial hand going in the BIG favourite in the last xx tournaments* – SnGs are a bit different, I’m more to the normal variance there, but not in MTTs, not even close to normal. It’s like I’m Mike Matusow’s lost twin brother in bizarro world minus the blow-ups or something.


*I mean, the last time I can remember that a big hand held up for me was in the WWdN two weeks back, but still, that’s just a drop in a bucket. I mean, I played so many MTTs in the last few weeks and it’s creepy, really creepy. I mean, you can look at it that way: 84% means 84 out of 100, now we all know that those 100 don’t need to be consecutive, but let’s assume that for a moment. Then variance is kicking me in the balls, while cutting them right off of me. I mean seriously. An 84% ball is currently a 1 out of 15 shot for me and I’m not kidding. (And I don’t even start to count the other “usual things”, like the 15% balls which hit like precisely 15% of the time or the 50% balls which kick me in the junk 12 times in a row before winning one then losing six again, etc)


But enough of the ranting, I’m too fed up to even write anymore about this huge mountain of horse manure. I’m going to log off now and relax a little, and maybe I’ll come back online later on to play me some cash games to win some of my money back…we’ll see…


Here’s the original hand history…:
PokerStars Game #7988166388: Tournament #40508277, $10.70+$1.00
Hold’em No Limit – Match Round I, Level II (15/30) – 2007/01/17 – 18:03:49 (ET)
Table ‘40508277 9’ 10-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: Ingoal (2925 in chips)
Seat 4: fatjim (2000 in chips)
Seat 5: soundshooter (2505 in chips)
Seat 6: jaap (2605 in chips)
Seat 9: mr2trout (1965 in chips)
Ingoal: posts small blind 15
fatjim: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ingoal [Ks Kh]
soundshooter: raises 60 to 90
jaap: calls 90
mr2trout: folds
Ingoal: calls 75
fatjim: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [3c Tc 2h]
Ingoal: bets 480
fatjim: calls 480
soundshooter: folds
jaap: folds
*** TURN *** [3c Tc 2h] [2d]
Ingoal: bets 2355 and is all-in
fatjim: calls 1430 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [3c Tc 2h 2d] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Ingoal: shows [Ks Kh] (two pair, Kings and Deuces)
fatjim: shows [6c Jc] (a flush, Jack high)
fatjim collected 4180 from pot
Ingoal said, “oh god damn it”
Ingoal said, “what a call”
Ingoal said, “unreal”
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4180 | Rake 0
Board [3c Tc 2h 2d 4c]
Seat 3: Ingoal (small blind) showed [Ks Kh] and lost with two pair, Kings and Deuces
Seat 4: fatjim (big blind) showed [6c Jc] and won (4180) with a flush, Jack high
Seat 5: soundshooter folded on the Flop
Seat 6: jaap folded on the Flop
Seat 9: mr2trout (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)




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aren’t flush draws like 100% to hit after the flop/turn?

gotta love poker

Comment by smokkee 01.18.07 @ 10:50 am

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*lol*

I think the formula for those ones is:

– Small meaningless pot after the flop: 50-75%
– Big pot after the flop: 75-80% for runner runner goodness (only if needed by opponent), 99,875% for the normal flush
– Small meaningless pot after the turn: 15-20% – unless you bet all-in in which case the probability jumps to an amazing 99,975%
– Big pot after turn: 99,75% 😉

Comment by Ingoal 01.18.07 @ 12:32 pm