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After my prior rant, I want to get back to a more “normal” post. After the disturbing tourney/SnG session earlier on I decided to give the ring games a whirl as this seems to be the quickest way to clear my signup bonus – after all you get points for every raked hand you’re in, so multi-tabling is definitely an option. So that’s what I did.

I finished the night slightly up despite running into some slow played made hands – sometimes it’s really ironic when you think that you’re slow-playing someone with a made hand, but (s)he thinks the same as his/her made hand is even stronger which happened on numerous occasions tonight (note to self: have another look at the board and if your current made hand isn’t the nuts try to find out where you’re at).

Preface: This is not a post about how online poker is rigged 😉 I know that it isn’t. I’m just trying to figure out what happened today..so I need to do a little bit of thinking aloud. I guess it could all be related to the fact that you’re paying more attention to “bad beats”/”miracle cards” (happening at the table not necessarily including you in the hand) when you’re experiencing a bad day poker wise…

Looking closer at the post title:

1. “miracle card” – What is a mircale card? I would define it as a card that saves your behind when you’re behind, usually on the river – although that definition is a little bit loose as this would be the same as an out (outs). So I guess it’s better defined as a single card (or a single card of one kind) that can save your behind, usually on the river (i.e. your opponent is holding 8c-9c, you’re holding K-Q, board 10c-Jc-8h-8s- ? The miracle card you need is any Ace which isn’t a club…so basically a three outer, even better: opponent J-J, you 10-10, board 8-7-8-3-? the only card that can save you is a ten – this example came quite easily as I’ve seen that exact hand and the miracle ten drop in one of the ring games).
2. “miracle cards” – you need two running perfect cards to beat your opponent, possibly while having to dodge some of those outs (i.e. you need a running 9 and 10, but neither of those can be of a suit (i.e. no spade)).

How often does a miracle card hit?

1. We all know a little “outs-theory”…so if you’re in need of ten to hit and you don’t hold any or see any there’s 4 outs…or if you need to hit a card of a certain suit and you hold two and see two..there’s 9 outs (unless one of the cards completes a better hand for your opponent)…I would say that a miracle card is more in the ranges of a one-three outer…
2. If we consider one-three outers to be a “miracle card” how come that I’ve seen such a miracle card around five times in 3 orbits on three different tables this evening? I mean the chances of a miracle card to hit the river is 2/52 (in case of a two outer…although this isn’t considering some information that we have got and some we haven’t got…hmm…how should I explain that: …you know that the deck consists of 52 cards…10 player table…10x 2 hole cards dealt (20 cards gone)…burn a card preflop (21)…drop the flop (24)…burn a card prior to the turn (25)…drop the turn (26)…burn a card prior to the river (27)… – so we know that 27 cards out of 52 are already gone…in an online scenario you only know 6 of them atm (your hole cards + flop + turn as the chance of peeking at your neighbour’s cards are non-existent)…and you know that there are 25 cards remaining…what you don’t know is if the miracle card is even still left in the remaining deck…I guess that’s why poker is considered gambling (to a certain degree) – after all if we all knew the “shuffling-algo” and all cards what would be the point of playing… 😉 )…pfeew…I lost my train of thought a little now…okay…
3. …so I guess you could say that the name is deserved and a miracle card shouldn’t hit the river all that often (after all that’s why such draws are often referred to as belly-buster or gutshot…)
4. I guess it was just a coincidence that all those miracle cards dropped on numerous tables at the same time…and that’s that? Or is there more to it? I guess not. At least nothing that could be proven without a huge amount of tests (and who wants to deal hundreds of thousands of hands manually and calculate the exact percentages considering that there are roughly 2.6 million (2.598.960 if I didn’t miscalculate) different hands (consisting of five cards))

Now that I’ve got that off my mind I can get some well-deserved sleep (and maybe laugh at the stuff I’ve written above tomorrow morning…although I’m getting more and more excited about getting to work on some of the math that is poker related – maybe I’ll even (at least) try to refine some of the concepts for my use…we’ll see)…night night…

*Caution: Rant ahead*

Hehe…sometimes it’s just not meant to be and you should walk away while you’re not too deep in doo-doo…I decided to do just the opposite.

Start things off with a heads up HORSE match for a fiver. “Donk” off 2/3 of your stack in the H as your opponent hits EVERY single flop while you hit every third-fourth one with middle pair. Great start. Battle your way half-way back in O8b and Razz then let your opponent outdraw you in every hand. Whoop-di-doo…now HORSE but a busted HORS…argh!

Then I thought I should play some of the soft 6$+0.60$ token satellites and to be honest they’re really soft with donks calling all-ins with middle pair etc…unbelievable. Even more unbelievable is the fact that you can’t seem to catch a hand and if you do you get a royal nut-kicking…I’m so mad atm that I could really smash the screen with my keyboard, but I won’t do it…I will log off now in an effort to calm down and get ready for some more action tonight…hopefully with some cards falling my way…(Result of the token SnGs: two 10th place finishes)…

Example hand to show you just how lucky I am today (all money went in pre-flop):

*End rant*

After busting out of the HORSE tourney, I decided to play the WWdN…

Was nice starting with Wil again, unfortunately he didn’t really last long as his pair of queens (KQ) ran into a set of 9s. So he was out first. My next table featured CJ and Sires.

My end came when my pocket nines ran into AK…sure enough the flop featured a lovely Ace and a King…so I’m crippled and All-In in the next hand…where I turn a pair, just to be rivered by a King…out in 21st of 54…

Because I was running late tonight and missed the usual 17ET 1$ tourney on FTP, I played a 4$+0.40$ token satellite. Winner gets a 26$ token and runner up gets 10$. Seems like a good deal with a 9 player table.

I was playing my usual tight game and was starting to get short-stacked. Just in time my pocket threes turned into a monster:

Dem quads beetches! Nice one. After that I pushed from the button with 4-4, 3xBB sort of stealing blinds, when the SB decides to push all-in…now I’m faced with a decision…probably racing for 1200 more….or let him have the 600 + blinds…I decided to call and to my surprise he shows 3-3…he never improved and we’re done to 3 handed. Hero: chip leader, 2nd player around 500chips down and a short stack…Opponent takes him out in the next hand and we’re heads up for the token:

Bad thing though as I push from the button in the 3rd hand. I hold AJo and opponent decides that calling an all-in is a good option with JTo instead of letting the 400 go…sure enough flop is T-7-7 and I never improve…argh! Nontheless I’m satisfied with my performance and I guess I’ll give it another shot tomorrow…

After yesterday’s marathon live game I wasn’t too keen on playing poker at all today, but I decided that I should at last play one or two tourneys while watching Waffles, Wes and Iggy at the 750k tourney on Stars. So I decided to play the $1 MTT again and a freeroll to the Jersey Days Finals (where you can win your own personalized Full Tilt Hockey Shirt).

The $1 tourney was quite nice and I was able to hold my own. No special hands come to mind, except one: the finest way to crack Kings…

It seems that this hand came back to haunt me though as I looked down at KK just before the bubble…and promptly lost to A-3o on a runner runner flush…argh! I was able to dodge ITM though, so it’s all good…although the profit was marginal (to say the least…buy-in $1, amount won: $1.64, 😉 ).

Not a bad showing though, I can live with a 67th place finish out of 729 players.

Jersey Tourney: 1000 players entered and I was able to play on and on, before I busted out in 36th place. Not a bad showing either – and I knew from the beginning that getting the ticket to the main event was slim (3 out of 1000 to be precise). At least I played another solid tourney and had my fun…so ‘s all good….

The first home game of the new year was played in Stuttgart tonight. 10 Players entered, all bought in for the same amount (no rebuys or add-ons allowed), two tables were formed in a random seat draw and it was decided that the final three of each table would merge to form the final table. Payouts would be: 1st = 60%, 2nd = 30%, 3rd = 10%. I managed to sneak into the final table without playing any real major hands (although I won a nice pot early on when my K-K won against Q-Q on a 9 high board with a pair and a flush draw). I was pretty shortstacked (with < 10% of the chips)...the first hand I looked down at was A-Jo and I pushed...one caller...who showed a pair of 9s. The Ace on the flop doubled me up. From there on it's quite a blur, but soon enough we were down to 3 and I was able to steal some blinds before that to put me in a better position. Not as good as my two opponents though as they held a combined (estimated) 80% of the chips. I won a pot or two and finally the two big stacks clashed, busting one out...so I was still the short stack, but 30% won already. Nice...then it was a long heads up battle, which I finally won when my suited Ace found help on the board vs a small pair. So I won, w00t! 60% of the price pool...cha-ching. Although it was really early already (2:30am) we decided to play a smaller second round with the buy-in cut in half...five players wanted a shot and we decided to pay out: 1st - 80%, 2nd - 20%...we were down to there pretty quickly (1.5 orbits) and I look down at As-Ks in the BB...I push folded around to the SB who ponders and calls...he shows 9-9...I don't improve and I'm out in 3rd place. Not a biggie though as I already took down the W of the first tourney, so I'm happy as the two remaining players battle back and forth...after some 1h of play (?!) it's finally over and we can make our way home...just walked through the door...5:30am now...need to catch some sleep now....Night night...

After busting out in 11th in the WWdN Euro Edition and busting out of two MTTs early on I was something like 20$ down at PokerStars and decided to call it a day at Stars. As it was fairly early though I decided to finally get some cash into FullTilt. Some minutes after I bought in a 1$+0$ fee MTT started and I thought what the heck, let’s give it a shot.

I was playing my usual hold’em fold’em game for the 1st hour and was fairly short-stacked. In the following two hours I was able to really get into the zone though…it was like I had a read on the guys and gals, especially when I smelled weakness. One critical hand came when I looked down at KK (for about the 6th time (including the WWdN where I held it 3 times)) and see what happened:

They held up and I was in good shape. The following 1.5hours of play are a blur, but sure enough I wound up at the final table, w00t!

After another break we were down to three and I busted out the last shorter stack to play heads up for the win.

Then I became literally card dead, or at least so dead that I missed every flop. So I was a large dog soon and I couldn’t do much as I was down in chip 1:5…so I shoved it in and lost…but hey, I’m not sad at all. Invested 1$ and won 74.24$ more than doubling my buy-in (deposit of 50$) in the first MTT…what a way to end the day!

On another note: I declare February 10th the KK-day (hand counted 10times today, no bullets, but KK plenty)! Now it’s time to catch some sleep as I’ve got a nice live home game tomorrow…wish me luck…!

Tonight’s the night of the first WWdN European Friendly version…starting time is 13:30 ET = 19:30 GMT+1 (18:30 UK). So if you’re looking for a good time, get into gear and sign up!

You can find the tourney via the PokerStars Lounge -> Tourney -> Private

The tourney number is 19345283, password is the usual (monkey)…cya at the tables. For more infos check Wil’s post about the tourney.

Update: So, I played the first ever WWdN euro friendly tourney. 27 players entered, some known faces (CJ, Sires, obviously Wil, …) and some “newcomers”. As there were only 27 participants only the top 3 payed and as it was time to approach the final table (after the 1st break), I got a little impatient and pushed with K-10o which lost to an Ace high (a lovely A-7o). Only thing really newsworthy: I had KK three times within the first three orbits – good thing one might think, it might have been if I didn’t chicken out of the first one post-flop (in my defense: Q high with straight and flush draw)…didn’t get anything else than the blinds with the other two so I couldn’t really take advantage…ooh well.

At the final table the weirdest thing ever happen, change100 sucked out on CJ to bust him out in 4th place ( = bubble-boy)…then we all witnessed a damn fine HU game between change100 and Zen Taff…back and forth the action went and in the end Zen Taff came out on top to “defend europes honor” (lol)…he’s from Wales and the winner of the first ever WWdN Euro friendly, cool!

Started the day with some nice going PLO8 SnG action – went into heads up down roughly 1:2 in chips and won the whole thing in two hands. Awesome way to start a session, but it wouldn’t last all that long as I kept running into nuts hands (when I thought my hand was the nuts). Example? I hold A-3-8-8, flop comes down 8-5-5…so I’m in good shape with a flopped boat and the second nut draw…turn and river are blank and sure enough I’m out in 10th of 10. How come? Another player flopped quads (5-5-x-x) and another one was holding A-2…too bad…

Things didn’t improve in the following 2 SnGs so I switched to the NL HE ones…took down 3rd and busted out in 10th of 10 again as my flopped trip 10s were rivered by trip queens:

Nothing exciting in MTT play either…Limit just isn’t my game (anymore). At least I finished the session on a high note…in preparation for DADIII – The HU Championship – I played a HU match on Absolute Poker and totally owned my opponent. I’m so looking forward to play DADIII!